by John Keller | Apr 11, 2014 | PriceAdvantage, Retail Fuel Margins
The OPIS report today showed average retail fuel margins across the US lost ground again this week. The average US retail fuel margin now stands at $0.127 per gallon, a $0.027 decline from last week. That’s the second consecutive decrease and the fourth drop in five weeks.
The year to date average dipped slightly to $0.156 per gallon, as did the six week average to $0.149 per gallon. The Q2 average is now $0.141 per gallon.
The current retail fuel margin is substantially lower than last year at this time, when it was $0.268 per gallon. The April 2013 average retail fuel margin finished the month at $0.219 per gallon last year. Half way into April, it’s not likely we’ll catch up to that monthly average this year.
by John Keller | Apr 10, 2014 | Fuel Price Management, Industry News, PriceAdvantage, Retail Fuel Margins
In the US EIA “Short-term and Summer Fuels Outlook” released today, we see these predictions for the summer of 2014 (April – September).
- US consumption of gasoline will be slightly higher (10,000 gallons) than the same period in 2013
- Brent crude oil prices will be $2 per barrel lower than the same period in 2013
- The US regular unleaded retail gas price will average $3.57, one cent lower than the same period in 2013, with these regional averages:
- East Coast $3.53 (same as 2013)
- Midwest $3.55 ($0.05 lower than 2013)
- Gulf Coast $3.37 (same as 2013)
- Rocky Mountain $3.52 ($0.09 lower than 2013)
- West Coast $3.85 ($0.02 lower than 2013)
- The US diesel retail gas price will average $$3.87, two cents lower than the same period in 2013
From a fuel price management perspective, what does it mean if these predictions come true?
- Fuel volumes would essentially be unchanged across the entire US market, unlike in the summer of 2013 when the overall US fuel market increased by 90,000 gallons.
- Wholesale costs to fuel retailers would be slightly less than last year, possibly as much as $0.048 per gallon less.
- Depending on the region, fuel retailers may be able to see an increase of fuel margins where the fuel price holds relatively steady but wholesale costs are less.
- Overall fuel sales as measured in dollars would be less for regions such as the Midwest, Rocky Mountain, and West Coast. Publicly held companies who have their sites in these regions may report lower overall fuel revenues if volumes are essentially the same and street prices are lower. That’s why financial analysts shouldn’t pay too much attention to this metric that is outside the control of the retailer. But with careful attention played to margins, fuel profits may remain strong, and that’s worthy of attention.
Obviously there is lots of uncertainty related to the future cost of crude, since a quick series of unexpected events could cause these predictions to be way off. That’s why the report shows a 95% confidence level of crude prices to be anywhere in the range of $60 to $130 per barrel. But for modeling purposes, this report does show one reference point that is useful for planning purposes.
by John Keller | Apr 8, 2014 | Customer News, Fuel Software, PriceAdvantage
The PriceAdvantage team would like to extend a warm family welcome to Kwik Chek / McCraw Oil, our latest partner and customer. Kwik Chek and McCraw Oil are based in Bonham, Texas, northeast of Dallas, and have locations throughout Texas and Oklahoma.
Kevin Smartt, CEO of Kwik Chek and Bill Wilson, President of McCraw Oil were looking for a fuel pricing solution that could find additional margins and efficiencies in their business. Smartt and Wilson needed a tool to reduce the time it takes to get data from the stores and then quickly turn around a price change to their Gilbarco and VeriFone POS systems. After months of evaluating various solutions, they decided that PriceAdvantage SMART Fuel Pricing was the best in class. They found that PriceAdvantage not only automated this process but also provided the price change confirmation feedback that was critical.
“We selected PriceAdvantage because their team understands our business needs and ultimately provides the best out-of-the-box solution giving us optimal fuel pricing control and management,” said Smartt.
“With our dealer locations we were experiencing delays in getting our pricing strategies implemented in a timely manner. PriceAdvantage allows us to be proactive to market changes, and gives us the pricing accountability and efficiency we need. This will allow us to capture additional profit for both our dealers and for McCraw Oil,” said Wilson. “We’re excited to begin the roll-out and look forward to a quick implementation.”
This implementation also includes the PriceAdvantage integration with PDI Enterprise.
Kwik Chek CEO Kevin Smartt is a member of the NACS Board of Directors, also serving on the NACS Research Committee along with Edward Holmes of Holmes Oil Company, Varish Goyal of Vintners Distributors, and Joseph Sheetz of Sheetz Inc., all of whom are PriceAdvantage customers.
Welcome Kwik Chek and McCraw Oil – we look forward to our mutual ongoing success together!
by John Keller | Apr 7, 2014 | Fuel Price Management Solutions, Fuel Software, Industry News
Today there’s a good article on NACS Online that includes several key statistics.
- Gasoline demand increased 1.1% in 2013, the largest annual increase since 2006 according to the US EIA.
- 5% of those surveyed say gas prices are too high at $3.30 per gallon.
- 65% of those surveyed say gas prices are too high at $3.50 per gallon.
- 91% of those surveyed say gas prices are too high at $4.00 per gallon.
- 53% of those surveyed say they are changing driving habits now, compared to 68% in the spring of last year.
What are the key takeaways from a fuel price management perspective?
- While regional fuel volumes may vary, on a national level across the US it’s worth noting that fuel volumes were higher last year. As you manage your fuel volumes and review the numbers from last year, it’s good to keep in mind this key benchmark for comparison sake.
- As you fine tune your fuel pricing strategy, bullets 2, 3 and 4 above point to specific gas price thresholds that you may want to stay clear of, opting instead for a price of $3.49 for example if margins support it.
- The numbers for fuel volumes aren’t yet in for this year, but bullet 5 above is an indicator that overall demand may hold steady this year or perhaps even increase a bit as the US economy continues to rebound. Perhaps in your specific markets there may be more fuel volumes available to grab.
The original article may be found here.
by John Keller | Apr 7, 2014 | Customer News, Industry News, PriceAdvantage
The New York Times published an interesting interview with Kim Bowers, CEO of CST Brands. The interview may be found here.
CST Brands became a PriceAdvantage customer in 2011 when they were under the Valero umbrella, completing their rollout to all stores in 2012. CST Brands has been using PriceAdvantage with great success, as the financial results show.
CST Brands has a representative on the PriceAdvantage Customer Advisory Board.
by John Keller | Apr 4, 2014 | Industry News, Retail Fuel Margins
In the OPIS report today, average retail fuel margins across the US dropped $0.014 per gallon. The national US average is now $0.154 per gallon, just under the year to date average of $0.158 per gallon.
The six week retail fuels margin average is $0.150 per gallon. This same Friday last year had the average retail fuels margin at $0.175.
In 2013, we saw a dramatic increase in retail fuel margins the second Friday of April, where the average jumped to $0.268 per gallon. April was a strong year in 2013, with the average retail fuel margin for the month being $0.219 per gallon. Let’s hope retail fuel margins turn around again this year.
by John Keller | Apr 4, 2014 | Fuel Price Management Solutions, Fuel Price Optimization, Fuel Software, Industry News, PriceAdvantage
On page 90 of the March issue of Convenience Store News magazine, there is some interesting survey insight regarding c-store retail fuels sales, comparing 2013 to 2012:
- 40.9% of c-stores surveyed said gas price volatility caused a decrease in store traffic.
- 38.6 % said gas price volatility caused a decrease in profitability.
- 27.3% said gas price volatility caused a decrease in sales.
- 13.6% said gas price volatility caused improved margins.
- 17.3% said they had increased gallons sold per transaction.
- 32.7% said they had decreased gallons sold per transaction.
- 50% said they had the same gallons sold per transaction.
What are we to make of this? Savvy c-store chains are able to manage what they measure, and develop effective fuel pricing strategies that fit into the overall profitability of each store. That means optimizing store traffic, acknowledging cases when sales and gallons sold per transaction may be lower, but managing every penny to optimize profits, both at the forecourt and in the store.
PriceAdvantage in conjunction with PDI allows you to directly see the correlation between fuels sales and other transactions of any kind. We call this the Volume Correlation report, unveiled at NACS and released in PriceAdvantage version 2013.3. Using PDI information, you can quickly see the correlation between fuel promotions and in-store sales, number of transactions, and average transaction size by product category, overlayed on top of volumes sold and price per gallon.
How do c-stores survive in today’s volatile fuels market? The old adage “You can’t manage what you can’t measure” holds true. With PriceAdvantage c-stores manage what they measure.
by John Keller | Mar 28, 2014 | Industry News, Retail Fuel Margins
The OPIS numbers released in the NACSDaily report today show US retail fuel margins rose for the first time in two weeks with an increase of $0.025 per gallon. The average retail fuel margin across the US now stands at $0.168 per gallon. This same day last year the average retail fuel margin was $0.22 per gallon. The six week average now stands at $0.146 per gallon, up $0.004 from last week.
The March retail fuel margin average this year finished at $0.153 per gallon, compared to $0.212 in March 2013. The first quarter margin average this year finished essentially the same as last year, with an average of $0.158 per gallon in 2014 compared to $0.159 per gallon in 2013.
In 2013, the Q2 average retail fuel margin was $0.191 per gallon. Let’s hope that 2014 can repeat that margin gain so we can see a more profitable quarter.
by John Keller | Mar 27, 2014 | Industry News
In the latest issue of CSP Magazine, there is an OPIS advertorial with some frightening news from the OPIS surveys of nearly 5000 stations across the US.
- Year to date fuel volumes down an average of 4.8% through February 8
- Median fuel gallons are down 5.8% through February 8
- 68% of stores surveyed had volume declines year over year
- 35% of stores surveyed had volumes down more than 10% year over year
- Same store volumes are down 6.4% for the first six weeks compared to last year
OPIS spokesman Brian Norris attributes the lower volumes to the standard trends of more fuel-efficient vehicles and more telecommuters. But Mr. Norris also says the “horrendous weather seen in much of the country” had a significant impact.
I expect we’ll see this gloomy news reflected in the financial results of the publicly held c-store companies when it’s time to report to Wall Street. Of course it’s a rare financial analyst who understands these kinds of environmental pressures that are outside the control of the c-store chain.
No doubt these statistics point out how competitive the retail fuels business is nowadays. It certainly is not for the faint of heart. Without the proper fuel software like PriceAdvantage, it simply is not possible to compete effectively.
by John Keller | Mar 24, 2014 | Customer News
According to CSP.net, The Spinx Company has added two members to their executive leadership team. You may find the article here.
One of the new leaders is Cheryl Szczesniak, formerly Operations Controller at Spinx, promoted to CIO of the company responsible for the company’s technology infrastructure and IT project management, and now on the executive leadership team that focuses on strategy planning, policy development and workplace oversight for Spinx.
Cheryl is a longtime friend of PriceAdvantage, having been part of the PriceAdvantage rollout to all their stores in 2011, and every PriceAdvantage upgrade since. A case study of how Spinx uses PriceAdvantage may be found here. Cheryl certainly has earned her stripes because under her direction, Spinx has successfully integrated PriceAdvantage with their Gilbarco POS system, NCR Radiant POS system, OPIS Radius reports, and PDI.
We’re proud to have Spinx as a customer and partner, and to have Cheryl Szczesniak as a friend.
