Is there or isn’t there a correlation between fuel volumes, fuel price, and in-store sales?

  • Is there or isn’t there a correlation between fuel volumes, fuel price, and in-store sales?

    When analyzing the overall profitability of a c-store, there’s a fundamental question that needs to be answered: do increased fuel volumes correlate to increased in-store sales and therefore overall store profits? Some would argue the answer is “of course – more customers to the forecourt obviously equates to more customers in the store, so there’s a direct correlation”.

    But is that true 100% of the time? Our PriceAdvantage team spent some time with industry experts at the recent 2013 Outlook Leadership Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona and the insight they provided may be surprising. Some of the folks we talked to said you can always count on the same percentage of forecourt customers coming into the store, and you can always count on the same per-dollar transaction average in the store; so therefore increasing traffic to the forecourt will directly correlate to increased store profits.

    But others told us that as you modify your fuel pricing strategy, the buying profile of the forecourt customer changes too, and the percentage of these forecourt customers shopping inside the store changes. Further, the nature of what purchases this new customer makes in the store also changes. In other words, changing a fuel pricing strategy may mean you can’t count on the same percentage of converting forecourt customers to in-store customers, and you can’t count on the same per-dollar transaction average in the store.

    What’s the right answer? We believe that it’s not “either / or”,  it’s “both / and”: with some stores the customer buying profile is static and one you can count on to predict in-store profits, while with other stores the customer profile is more dynamic based on your fuel pricing strategy.

    PriceAdvantage now allows you to select an unlimited number of product categories from an imported set of data from PDI, and run a report showing the correlation between retail fuel volumes and retail fuel prices with the selected data. That means you can see how fuel promotions impact in-store product category sales, along with the number of in-store transactions. You can even see how promotions of one in-store product category impact sales of another in-store product category, along with fuel volumes and fuel prices.

    This type of rich analysis comes out of the box with PriceAdvantage and its integration with PDI, allowing fuel managers to optimize the entire business at the c-store, both at the forecourt and inside the store.

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