by John Keller | May 6, 2014 | Fuel Price Management, Fuel Software, Industry News, Retail Fuel Margins
According to an article in Convenience Store Decisions, for the first time since February, the average fuel price for regular gasoline across the US is expected to drop. The author of the article is Brian Milne, Energy Editor for Schneider Electric, and he attributes the prediction to sliding gasoline futures, a drop in secondary wholesale costs, refiners returning units to service after an extensive turnaround season, a higher run rate at U.S. refineries, a continued growth in domestic fuel supply amid the boom in shale oil, and new pipeline capacity to the Gulf Coast.
However, since the US Energy Department announced there will be federal regional gasoline reserves created near New York Harbor and in New England this year in response to the disruption caused by Superstorm Sandy, Mr. Milne wrote that gasoline prices will find “upside pricing support” this summer.
The full article can be found here.
What does it mean to fuel analysts if this prediction proves true? It means retail fuel relief for the first time since February, and an opportunity for fuel retailers to catch up on their retail fuel margins. It means fuels demand possibly beyond the typical seasonal increases we see each summer. And it means some reassurance that if we get hit with another superstorm this year, we’ll be able to make it through without the dramatic impact we saw with Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
by John Keller | Apr 23, 2014 | Customer News, Fuel Price Management Solutions, Fuel Pricing Software, Fuel Pricing Technology, Fuel Software, PriceAdvantage
PriceAdvantage customer in the news: Sheetz President and CEO Joe Sheetz has been named the vice chairman of the National Association of Convenience Stores’ (NACS) Research Committee. This announcement was reported by Convenience Store Decisions here.
This NACS committee directs the NACS research and development initiatives and programs to promote the ongoing competitive viability of the channel.
“I am honored to be entrusted with the leadership of my family’s company,” said Joe Sheetz. “The vision of my uncles Bob and Steve fueled Sheetz for more than 60 years, not only to stay in business, but to help move the entire industry forward. Add to that the drive and focus Stan brought to this position and I suddenly find myself with quite a legacy to preserve.”
Sheetz Inc. operates more than 460 locations throughout Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina, and is regarded as one of the industry’s best c-store companies.
Sheetz has been a PriceAdvantage customer since 2009, when they estimated PriceAdvantage would save them $141,000 each year, as well as add 50 hours of customer face time per year for each store manager. The combined solution of PriceAdvantage with Skyline electronic price signs has been a tremendous success for both Sheetz and PriceAdvantage over the years.
The PriceAdvantage team is proud of our partnership with Sheetz, and we look forward to our continued joint success as we lead the c-store industry together.
by John Keller | Apr 17, 2014 | Customer News, Fuel Price Management Solutions, Industry News, PriceAdvantage
In the news today, Convenience Store Decisions reported that PriceAdvantage customer Parker’s has created the CTO position at their company and named Stephen Hines as CTO.
“In his new position, Hines will be responsible for overseeing and managing all current technologies for Parker’s. He will ensure that all technology related decisions are aligned with the company’s business goals, build the internal IT department to support the company’s growth, and maintain all processes, procedures, and documentation for internal IT systems,” according to Convenience Store Decisions.
Parker’s has been a PriceAdvantage customer for over one year, integrating PriceAdvantage with their VeriFone POS system, PDI back office, and GasBuddy OpenStore, as well as their Skyline electronic price signs.
by John Keller | Apr 10, 2014 | Fuel Price Management, Industry News, PriceAdvantage, Retail Fuel Margins
In the US EIA “Short-term and Summer Fuels Outlook” released today, we see these predictions for the summer of 2014 (April – September).
- US consumption of gasoline will be slightly higher (10,000 gallons) than the same period in 2013
- Brent crude oil prices will be $2 per barrel lower than the same period in 2013
- The US regular unleaded retail gas price will average $3.57, one cent lower than the same period in 2013, with these regional averages:
- East Coast $3.53 (same as 2013)
- Midwest $3.55 ($0.05 lower than 2013)
- Gulf Coast $3.37 (same as 2013)
- Rocky Mountain $3.52 ($0.09 lower than 2013)
- West Coast $3.85 ($0.02 lower than 2013)
- The US diesel retail gas price will average $$3.87, two cents lower than the same period in 2013
From a fuel price management perspective, what does it mean if these predictions come true?
- Fuel volumes would essentially be unchanged across the entire US market, unlike in the summer of 2013 when the overall US fuel market increased by 90,000 gallons.
- Wholesale costs to fuel retailers would be slightly less than last year, possibly as much as $0.048 per gallon less.
- Depending on the region, fuel retailers may be able to see an increase of fuel margins where the fuel price holds relatively steady but wholesale costs are less.
- Overall fuel sales as measured in dollars would be less for regions such as the Midwest, Rocky Mountain, and West Coast. Publicly held companies who have their sites in these regions may report lower overall fuel revenues if volumes are essentially the same and street prices are lower. That’s why financial analysts shouldn’t pay too much attention to this metric that is outside the control of the retailer. But with careful attention played to margins, fuel profits may remain strong, and that’s worthy of attention.
Obviously there is lots of uncertainty related to the future cost of crude, since a quick series of unexpected events could cause these predictions to be way off. That’s why the report shows a 95% confidence level of crude prices to be anywhere in the range of $60 to $130 per barrel. But for modeling purposes, this report does show one reference point that is useful for planning purposes.
by John Keller | Apr 7, 2014 | Fuel Price Management Solutions, Fuel Software, Industry News
Today there’s a good article on NACS Online that includes several key statistics.
- Gasoline demand increased 1.1% in 2013, the largest annual increase since 2006 according to the US EIA.
- 5% of those surveyed say gas prices are too high at $3.30 per gallon.
- 65% of those surveyed say gas prices are too high at $3.50 per gallon.
- 91% of those surveyed say gas prices are too high at $4.00 per gallon.
- 53% of those surveyed say they are changing driving habits now, compared to 68% in the spring of last year.
What are the key takeaways from a fuel price management perspective?
- While regional fuel volumes may vary, on a national level across the US it’s worth noting that fuel volumes were higher last year. As you manage your fuel volumes and review the numbers from last year, it’s good to keep in mind this key benchmark for comparison sake.
- As you fine tune your fuel pricing strategy, bullets 2, 3 and 4 above point to specific gas price thresholds that you may want to stay clear of, opting instead for a price of $3.49 for example if margins support it.
- The numbers for fuel volumes aren’t yet in for this year, but bullet 5 above is an indicator that overall demand may hold steady this year or perhaps even increase a bit as the US economy continues to rebound. Perhaps in your specific markets there may be more fuel volumes available to grab.
The original article may be found here.
by John Keller | Apr 4, 2014 | Fuel Price Management Solutions, Fuel Price Optimization, Fuel Software, Industry News, PriceAdvantage
On page 90 of the March issue of Convenience Store News magazine, there is some interesting survey insight regarding c-store retail fuels sales, comparing 2013 to 2012:
- 40.9% of c-stores surveyed said gas price volatility caused a decrease in store traffic.
- 38.6 % said gas price volatility caused a decrease in profitability.
- 27.3% said gas price volatility caused a decrease in sales.
- 13.6% said gas price volatility caused improved margins.
- 17.3% said they had increased gallons sold per transaction.
- 32.7% said they had decreased gallons sold per transaction.
- 50% said they had the same gallons sold per transaction.
What are we to make of this? Savvy c-store chains are able to manage what they measure, and develop effective fuel pricing strategies that fit into the overall profitability of each store. That means optimizing store traffic, acknowledging cases when sales and gallons sold per transaction may be lower, but managing every penny to optimize profits, both at the forecourt and in the store.
PriceAdvantage in conjunction with PDI allows you to directly see the correlation between fuels sales and other transactions of any kind. We call this the Volume Correlation report, unveiled at NACS and released in PriceAdvantage version 2013.3. Using PDI information, you can quickly see the correlation between fuel promotions and in-store sales, number of transactions, and average transaction size by product category, overlayed on top of volumes sold and price per gallon.
How do c-stores survive in today’s volatile fuels market? The old adage “You can’t manage what you can’t measure” holds true. With PriceAdvantage c-stores manage what they measure.
