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Retail fuel margins maintain highest levels of the year

The average retail fuel margin remained at the top level of the year this week, according to OPIS. The average retail fuel margin dipped $0.001 per gallon to $0.369 per gallon. That’s $0.175 per gallon higher than this week last year.

The year to date average inched upward again to hit $0.200 per gallon while the Q4 average broke $0.30 to hit $0.312 per gallon. The six week average is now $0.293 per gallon, the highest of the year.

We’re now counting down nine weeks until the end of the year. Last year, these nine weeks averaged $0.19 per gallon. Even if retail fuel margins go into a free fall through the end of this year, and there are no industry indications that we will, we’re still looking at what will likely be the best quarter of the year.

PriceAdvantage customers in the news: CST and Spinx join NACS Board of Directors

NACS announced new members on their Board of Directors, and two of the five new members represent PriceAdvantage customers.

Anthony Bartys, senior vice president and COO of CST Brands joins the NACS Board, as does Stephen Christopher Spinks, CEO of The Spinx Company.

Other PriceAdvantage customers already on the NACS Board of Directors include Joseph Sheetz from Sheetz, Edward Holmes from Holmes Oil, and Kevin Smartt of Kwik Chek Food Stores.

The PriceAdvantage team is proud to partner with such influential industry leaders as those on the NACS Board of Directors.

NACS 2014 – what a show

We just finished up the NACS 2014 show, and what a show it was. It was great to meet up with so many of our customers again and learn about the latest developments in their business. For some of our customers, it provided the opportunity for us to bring them up to speed on new features of PriceAdvantage. For others, it was the opportunity to talk about where they’re headed, and our product roadmap.

We did something different this year, and invited our newest partner Fuelzee to share our booth space. That proved to be a winning move, since many folks wanted to learn more about the free competitor pricing data Fuelzee is providing to PriceAdvantage, and how PriceAdvantage is pushing prices out to the Fuelzee mobile app for consumers to see. Loyalty, rewards, and mobile payment is a hot topic in our industry now, so Fuelzee was quite busy over the three days of the show.

The Expo floor was interesting because it showed a sample of how many integrations PriceAdvantage offers. Though it’s not a complete list, it included PDI, Fuelzee, GasBuddy/OPIS, NCR Radiant, Skyline signs, Pinnacle, and Gilbarco Veeder-Root. PriceAdvantage provides the Fuel Analyst with the aggregation of information, the views needed to make quick fuel pricing decisions, and the ability to act on those decisions by executing fuel pricing strategies to the street. Our theme this year was “It’s about time”, as in “It’s about time:  the faster you can determine the right price, the faster you can increase profits”; “It’s about time: the quicker you can execute your fuel pricing strategies and know for certain the right price is at every store, the quicker you can move on to other responsibilities”; “It’s about time you make money off your fuel business”.

We look forward to seeing everyone at the NACS show 2015 next time – once again in Vegas.

Incorporating weather conditions and forecasts into fuel pricing strategies

The October issue of NACS Magazine has a great article “Weathering the Storm” discussing how weather impacts both fuel and in-store sales. Perhaps the best quote in the article is this: “As a stand-alone discipline, focusing on weather impact seems perhaps overstated, but as part of an overall retailing strategy it is essential, especially when it comes to reinforcing your brand’s value.”

The importance of incorporating weather into your fuel pricing strategy is a concept we at PriceAdvantage have embraced for a long time. It is in this vein that PriceAdvantage offers a free weather widget that not only shows current weather conditions at the store location, but a six day forecast, and a three day weather history as well. Ice storm in the forecast for Dallas? Prepare for virtually no traffic on that day. Nor’easter predicted to hit Boston this weekend? Plan on increased traffic exiting the city for home ahead of it, and increased skier traffic to the mountains after it.

Weather is a critical aspect of retail fuel pricing that makes optimization economic models on their own simply not good enough. Economic models are based on all things being equal. Introduce a random major weather event, and suddenly all things are not equal. Successful retail fuel pricing strategies must incorporate the wisdom and insight that only the fuel analyst and field intelligence can provide. That’s what we mean when we describe the “art and science” of fuel pricing.

NACS board member Chris Gheysens says in the article “It’s time to see weather as an opportunity … Understand what it does to you and solve for it going forward, coming up with different strategies.”

Retail fuel prices expected to drop

Brian Milne, Energy Editor for Schneider Electric, contributed another excellent update on Convenience Store Decisions today.

From a fuel price management perspective, the key takeaways are as follows:

  1. Brent crude oil dropped into the mid $90s bbl, below $100 bbl for the first time in over a year.
  2. West Texas Intermediate traded at $90.43, the lowest since May 2013.
  3. Retail fuel prices are likely to drop as much as $0.25 or more over the next 6-8 weeks.

We know that with the summer travelling season behind us, the annual seasonal trend should show us lower volumes from here through the end of the year. If Mr. Milne’s prediction holds true, and retail fuel margins increase as retail fuel prices drop, we’re heading into a season of strong retail fuel margins through Q4. In 2013, retail fuel margins hovered in the $0.188 to $0.191 range throughout the fourth quarter, and we didn’t see such margin increases. Hopefully 2014 will prove to be more profitable.

Pinnacle Summit provides great introduction to new PriceAdvantage integration

The Pinnacle Summit 2014 event in Dallas this week provided the perfect venue for Pinnacle customers to learn more about the upcoming multi-faceted PriceAdvantage integration. Response to the integration announcement was overwhelmingly positive.

The Pinnacle integration is scheduled for release in Q4 of this year and includes the following elements:

  1. Pinnacle Palm POS: PriceAdvantage price changes can be executed at the Palm POS. This is now the sixth POS system that works with PriceAdvantage.
  2. Pinnacle Palm POS: PriceAdvantage receives periodic volume feeds from the Pinnacle tank monitor web service to allow fuel analysts to see fuel sales in near-realtime and make adjustments to fuel pricing strategies throughout the day; get aggressive with margins to make up lost volumes from the morning so as to regain those volumes during the evening commute; leave prices alone if volumes remain strong despite competitive market moves downward.
  3. Pinnacle Manager Workstation: PriceAdvantage collects fuel and merchandise sales by store for performance reporting to understand customer profiles and market trends in consumer behavior. These kinds of reports can help understand whether or not, and to what degree, fuel sales impact in-store sales.

The folks at Pinnacle are working closely with the PriceAdvantage team, and the upcoming solution promises to be very powerful.