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US EIA Reporting

US EIA reports a $0.076 fuel price increase from last week.

In today’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, the US EIA reported regular unleaded retail fuel prices across the US increased for the 6th consecutive week, this time by $0.076 per gallon to $3.72. Fuel prices are now at levels last seen May 21, 2012. Unleaded regular fuel prices are now $0.117 per gallon higher than one year ago.

Retail gasoline prices increased everywhere tracked by the US EIA except the state of Ohio which saw a $0.126 per gallon drop, and the cities of Chicago and Cleveland which saw a $0.020 and a $0.102 per gallon drop, respectively.

The biggest fuel price increase was found in California at $0.228 per gallon, with a $0.28 increase in San Francisco and a $0.219 in Los Angeles.

From the fuel price management perspective, the Fuel Manager should use this data in their fuel price optimization software to optimize the gasoline pricing strategy in each of their markets.

US EIA Reportings

US EIA reports gasoline fuel consumption increases in April and May over 2011.

In the US Energy Information Administration report “Today in Energy” dated August 13, 2012, the US EIA reported gasoline consumption was up slightly in April and May this year compared to last. Bucking the trend going on for years, April 2012 showed a one month consumption increase of 55 thousand bbl/d compared to 2011. May 2012 showed a consumption increase of 200 thousand bbl/d compared to the same month previous year.

U.S. gasoline consumption peaked in 2007 at 9.3 million bbl/d and fell by an average of 3.2% (300 thousand bbl/d) in 2008 due to the recession and high gasoline prices, which topped $4 per gallon in June and July 2008. Gasoline consumption remained flat the next two years, increasing by just 0.1% in 2009 and falling slightly in 2010. In 2011 gasoline consumption fell by 2.9% (260 thousand bbl/d) from the year before.

The first three months of this year, gasoline consumption averaged 124 thousand bbl/d lower compared to last year.

From a Fuel Price Management perspective, this data is critical for comparing overall market size fluctuations vs. differences year over year, and manipulating the gasoline pricing strategy for various markets.

MAPCO Express reports strong retail fuel margins

Delek US Holdings reports retail fuel margins of $0.182 for Q2.

In their Q2 report for 2012, Delek US Holdings reported retail fuel margins of $0.182 per gallon, compared to $0.186 per gallon in 2011. For the first six months of 2012, retail fuel margins stand at $0.153 per gallon compared to $0.157 per gallon in 2011.

Retail fuel volumes per store for the quarter were up roughly 7% from 86,505 gallons to 92,662 gallons. Average retail fuel gallons per store for the period was 278,000 gallons, up from 260,000 gallons for the same period last year. That equates to approximately 92,660 gallons per store per month for the quarter across their 372 stores.

Delek US Holdings operates 372 MAPCO Express c-stores throughout the southeastern United States.

From a fuel price optimization strategy perspective, it’s interesting to compare these results with the results from The Pantry. Both chains operate c-stores in overlapping states, one can assume with similar market pressures. Yet The Pantry shows struggling results with decreased retail fuel margins and gallons sold, while Delek US Holdings shows retail fuel margins holding steady with increased fuel volumes.

Harvard Predicts Lower Oil Price Trend

In the Harvard report “Oil: The Next Revolution, The unprecedented upsurge of oil production capacity and what it means for the world”, Leonardo Maugeri predicts a change in the balance of power and and a long-term lower oil prices for the remainder of the decade. From a fuel price management perspective, this is a fascinating picture of where we are today and where we are likely to be in the coming decades.

Mr. Maugeri outlines a range of different scenarios with varying economic possibilities ranging from a new world-wide economic recession, a sudden solution to major political tensions, a collapse of the China economy, and a sudden recovery of the world economy. Mr. Maugeri writes “I have no particular preference for any of these scenarios…although I think the probability of a significant fall in oil prices is higher than all other scenarios.”

The paper asserts that its most important messages are these:

  • Oil is not in short supply
  • The oil market is global and none of its pieces/countries can be insulated from the other
  • The shale boom in the US is the most important revolution in the oil sector in decades
  • Conventional oil production is growing throughout the world
  • The oil market will continue to remain volatile through 2015
  • The Western Hemisphere could return to pre-World War II status of self-sufficiency

Retail Fuel Margins Dropping

Today we had an interesting conversation with a CEO about what benefits he gets out of using PriceAdvantage as his retail fuel price management solution. He listed two specific interwoven benefits.

He described what it was like before PriceAdvantage, where he would send fuel price changes to the stores, and the store personnel would assure him they had implemented the price changes. Then he would drive by his stores and see they still displayed the old prices because the store folks hadn’t in fact changed the prices. Then there would be hours spent following up with the locations to follow through with the price changes. As you can imagine, this was a source of great frustration because his stores did not have the right prices at the street, and there were a lot of hours wasted on operations that would be better spent on strategic thinking.

Now with PriceAdvantage, he says he knows the price change has been completed when his Fuels Manager receives the automated successful price change confirmation email. In most cases, the Store Manager is removed from the fuel price change process completely because his company has integrated PriceAdvantage with the VeriFone POS. And in those cases where there is an operational problem, the Fuels Manager receives an automated email notification of a delayed price change, allowing her to follow up on an exception basis. That results in a savings of upwards of two hours each day.

So the PriceAdvantage benefits for this CEO are two-fold: confidence that based on their gasoline pricing strategy, the right retail price is at the right store at the right time, and hours gained each day in the operational fuel price change process.

Accusations of Price Gouging

According to NACS, there have been accusations of fuel price gouging in the aftermath of last week’s storms and the declaration that West Virginia is in a state of emergency.

According to West Virginia Assistant Attorney General Douglas Davis, state law says “you take the date of the emergency declaration, go back 10 days, and whatever the price was then, you can raise it 10% before we get interested.”

In Virginia, price-gouging laws are in effect through July 30, after the Governor declared a state of emergency June 29. The law in Virginia states that businesses can be charged with price gouging if they charge a price that is “unconscionable” when compared to the average price of the same product during the emergency declaration. The term “unconscionable” is not defined.

In times of these accusations, Fuel Price Management software solutions such as PriceAdvantage can shorten a fuels price audit from days needed to track down stacks of spreadsheets, to a few minutes needed to run a built-in fuel pricing history report.