PriceAdvantage - Logo

Fuel Price Pattern Reverses In 2010, Rising $.30 Since Labor Day

Fuel prices trend downward from Labor Day to December. Or so has been the consistant pattern according to the US Energy Information Administration who has tracked retail fuel prices since 1990.

But in 2010, fuel prices reversed this pattern, rising $.30/gallon from Labor Day to mid-December. As a comparison, over the 2004 through 2007 period and in 2009 (2008 is excluded due to the rapid run-up and subsequent crash in crude oil prices over the course of that year), the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell an average of 22 cents between Labor Day and the middle of December.

The $2.98 per gallon national average price of regular gasoline on December 22, 2010 is the second highest on US EIA record for the third week of December, surpassed only by 2007 when the average price reached $3.00 per gallon.

The US EIA explains this unusual phenomenon on several factors:

[fancy_list style=”circle_arrow”]

  • Strengthening demand combined with a tightening U.S. supply picture (particularly on the East Coast)
  • In October and November, a planned outage at Irving Oil’s St. John refinery in Canada, a major supplier of gasoline to the United States, coupled with port and refinery strikes in France, limited the amount of gasoline available for import.
  • In late August, gasoline inventories on the East Coast were in excess of their five-year average by over 11 million barrels; however, by the end of November, that excess inventory had been completely eroded, with inventory levels almost 3 million barrels under the five-year average.
  • Crude oil prices have continued to rise as the market has become more confident that strong global oil demand growth will continue into 2011.

[/fancy_list]

US EIA Reports $.02 Fuel Price Increase

According to the US Energy Information Administration today, retail fuel prices across the US rose again this week.

The U.S. average retail fuel price for a gallon of gasoline increased for the second straight week, up more than two cents from last week to $2.98 per gallon, and $0.38 per gallon higher than last year at this time. West Coast gasoline prices increased more than three cents, the largest gain versus last week. West Coast gasoline remains the most expensive in the country at $3.19 per gallon. Prices on the East Coast and in the Rocky Mountains were up almost three cents, while prices on the Gulf Coast gained more than two cents. Rounding out the regions, the Midwest saw its average gasoline price increase a penny from last week.

US Government Predicts Unleaded Fuel Price Of $2.84 In Winter 2011

In the November 9, 2011 edition of the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the US government predicts unleaded retail prices to average $2.84/gallon this winter. That’s $.19 per gallon higher than last winter. This prediction is based on a model where West Texas Intermediate crude oil averages $83 per barrel. That’s a $5.50 per barrel increase over last winter. The model includes a 2010 forecasted growth in the US gross domestic product of 2.6%, and 2.2% growth in 2011. World oil consumption is predicted to grow 3.9% in 2010 and 3.3% in 2011.

If the US EIA’s predictions prove to be correct, unleaded retail fuel price averages will be $.02 less than they are as of the week of November 8, 2010.

Royal Farms Completes PriceAdvantage implementation at 95th Store

Royal Farms is now using PriceAdvantage as their exclusive fuel price management solution at all 95 stores. With PriceAdvantage, Royal Farms has fully automated their fuel price management system, giving them complete command and control over the Skyline electronic price sign, POS, and pump for all retail fuel price changes. Fuel price optimization now happens in minutes, as Royal Farms headquarters sends the price of the day each morning via PriceAdvantage, and receives a confirmation date and time stamp when the price change is complete.

Wall Street Journal Says Fuel Prices Must Be $8-$9 per Gallon To Make Electric Cars Cost Effective For Consumers

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal quotes Xavier Mosquet, Sr. Director and Managing Partner (Detroit) of Boston Consulting Group, as saying fuel prices must be at $8 to $9 per gallon before electric cars will be cost effective for buyers. This takes into consideration the lack of US government incentives that can’t go on forever. Mr. Mosquet goes on to say that a fuel price of $4 per gallon, with current government incentives, will support electric car sales representing only 5% of the market by 2020.

So why the big push for electric vehicles from auto makers?

  1. US EPA credits that allow manufacturers to build more profitable luxury cars and trucks.
  2. California mandates that the top six car manufacturers offer a zero emission model in 2012 or pay severe fines.

As Fuel Managers peer over the horizon to see when electric vehicles should be folded into their fuel pricing strategy, a wait and see attitude may be best for the next five years so as not to get distracted from the core business.

The entire WSJ article is worth reading here.

National Fuel Prices Post Largest Gain In Weeks

In today’s US Energy Information Administration release of the latest weekly retail fuel prices, the average national price for all grades rose more than $.08 per gallon from the previous week. That’s the largest price increase in over six weeks.

The average national price of regular unleaded fuel rose from $2.73 to $2.81. Regional unleaded fuel prices ranged from a weekly increase of $.11 per gallon in the Central Atlantic states, to $.10 per gallon in New England, to $.06 per gallon on the West Coast. All regions of the country saw prices increase with the exception of the Rocky Mountains, which remained essentially unchanged at $2.79 per gallon.

Particularly hard hit was the city of Cleveland, which saw an increase of $.14 per gallon to $2.86. Across the country, the most expensive local averages for Unleaded was in San Francisco, with a price of $3.12 per gallon, up from $3.04 the week before. The lowest local averages for Unleaded were reported in Houston at $2.64, up $.08 from the previous week.