by John Keller | Mar 14, 2015 | Fuel Price Management, Industry News, Retail Fuel Margins
According to an article in the Wall Street Journal today, the International Energy Agency announced Friday that US oil output was “surprisingly strong” in February, rapidly filling all available storage tanks. The agency said that US supply continues to “defy expectations”.
The reason is this: while independent shale-oil producers have slashed their planned 2015 spending on drilling by $50 billion year over year, they are increasing production on their best oil fields. Total US crude oil production again hit a high for the week ending March 6, reaching 9.4 million barrels a day.
And now many of these oil producers are adopting a new strategy that allows them to store oil in the ground, wait for the market price to rise again, and then quickly flood the market again. They simply drill the wells, which accounts for roughly 40% of the cost of the well’s total price, and then cap it until the right time when they can justify the remaining 60% investment to bring the oil to market. Plus many of these companies are betting that when it is time to produce from these capped wells, the services cost will be lower. This US oil under ground provides that much more storage beyond what is in the tanks above ground.
Add all this together and we see a scenario where it’s unlikely to have dramatically increasing oil prices anytime in the near future.
by John Keller | Feb 20, 2015 | Fuel Price Management, Industry News, Retail Fuel Margins
According to the Wall Street Journal today, we have an ongoing debate as to whether or not oil prices have hit rock bottom.
On one hand, we have seen the price of crude increase recently and now oil prices are back up above $50 a barrel. Oil producers in the US are reportedly cutting back on drilling, where the weekly count of rigs drilling for oil has dropped to the lowest level since August 2011, and oil companies have announced plans to lower their future spending. Aramco, the Saudi Arabia owned oil company, has announced they are considering cutting their future spending on production and exploration by up to 25%.
On the other hand, the US Energy Information Administration just announced that oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels in the week ending February 13. Their report said the US is on track to hit a 42 year high this month. Here we have an indication that output is not yet cutting back. And we’re in the middle of the annual February – March cycle where demand is at its lowest. In other words, oil supply continues to outweigh demand. Certainly it appears that in the near term, production will continue to keep us in an oversupply situation.
The ongoing US refinery strikes are three weeks old now, without any impact on gasoline prices. Refineries are hurt by roughly 200,000 barrels a day by the strike, and that amounts to a little over 1% of the daily US consumption which is 19 million barrels a day.
What does that mean from a fuel price management perspective? We’re seeing the traditional upward trend of springtime wholesale prices, along with upward trending retail fuel prices, and downward trending retail fuel margins. Gasoline futures also continue to rise. What remains to be seen is whether or not fuel volume demand repeats the strong numbers seen at the end of 2014. Retail fuel pricing competition remains strong, and the business is not for the weary. Retail fuel pricing software like PriceAdvantage is the way to the competitive edge.
by John Keller | Feb 12, 2015 | Fuel Price Management, Fuel Pricing Strategy, Industry News
According to the Wall Street Journal today, the US Energy Information Administration announced Wednesday that US crude stockpiles are at another record high. Oil companies are cutting back on their drilling investments and drilling activity has slowed, but the effects are not likely to be felt until the second half of this year, so say many experts.
The total quantity of oil in storage by companies such as refiners and traders is at the highest level in roughly 80 years. The US EIA stated in their weekly report that US oil production rose again to 49,000 barrels a day to 9.2 million barrels per day in the latest week, the highest level in reports dating back to 1983.
Oil prices dropped below $50 again to $48.84 per gallon on NYMEX. Gasoline futures fell by .91% while Diesel futures fell by 1%.
What does this mean from a fuel price management perspective? This is the season when refineries shut down plants for maintenance in anticipation of the higher demand months of summer. Usually that means refinery supplies lower and wholesale prices rise. Perhaps this year the inventory surplus will keep that wholesale increase at lower levels than years past, and lower oil prices will help suppress fuel price increases.
by John Keller | Feb 3, 2015 | Customer News, Fuel Price Management, Fuel Pricing Software, Fuel Pricing Technology, Industry News
According to Convenience Store News, longtime PriceAdvantage customer Royal Farms has opened a new location in Delaware, near the headquarters of Wawa. This is the first Royal Farms location in Delaware County, where Wawa is based. Royal Farms operates 160 Convenience Stores across the east coast.
Royal Farms Marketing Manager said “Every market we move into, we have had competition. And it’s not just from other convenience stores. It’s from grocery stores and fast-food restaurants.” Royal Farms President John Kemp attended the grand-opening event and presented donations to seven local charities.
Royal Farms has been using PriceAdvantage as their fuel price management system integrated with their Skyline Products electronic gas price signs for over seven years. Rob Rinehart, Director of Retail Petroleum had this to say:
“It is a penny up and penny down game. PriceAdvantage presents information to me in a simple and easy way so that I can review each store quickly to determine what price I want posted at the street in the next half an hour. We achieved a return on our investment in 12 months.”
Read more about their solution here.
by John Keller | Feb 2, 2015 | Fuel Price Management, Fuel Pricing Software, Fuel Pricing Strategy, Industry News, Retail Fuel Margins
Brian Milne, the Energy Editor at Schneider Electric presented some interesting statistics today, via Convenience Store Decisions. Here are the highlights:
- Wholesale spot market is up
- US Crude production growth is predicted to continue
- The traditional trend of the spring season is set to reverse the current 17 week string of declines in US retail gasoline prices
- Futures contracts are at a two year high pointing to expected gasoline price increases
- Amount of gasoline supplied to the primary market is higher than last year and five years ago (consumer demand is up)
- The highest two weekly averages of the year for gasoline supplied to the primary market were the last two weeks of the year
- Oil prices continue to drop on NYMEX
The seasonal trend of every spring time involves the transition from winter blends to summer blends, scheduled refinery shutdown due to scheduled maintenance, and anticipated increased volume usage as the weather improves and consumers drive more.
What does this mean from a fuel price management perspective?
We should see the increase in wholesale prices that we always see this time of year, even if oil prices continue to decline. That means strong retail fuel margins will be hard to come by. As NACS reported in their consumer survey today, consumers are willing to drive five miles out of their way to save five cents per gallon, and 65% of those surveyed said they had taken advantage of a discount such as a loyalty program.
We should also see a prolonged increase in retail fuel volumes as consumers are willing to drive more at current prices.
by John Keller | Jan 9, 2015 | Fuel Price Management, Fuel Price Optimization, Fuel Pricing Strategy, Fuel Software, Retail Fuel Margins
The OPIS report today revealed the average retail fuels margin across the US was $0.288 per gallon, down $0.047 from last week.
That is the third consecutive weekly decline, but the US retail average is still nearly double the margin of the equivalent week last year when the retail fuels margin was $0.146 per gallon. The six week average remains at a robust $0.326 per gallon. This is the fifth consecutive week when the six week average increased.
Last year at this time the retail fuel margin average bumped along the bottom until breaking above $0.20 per gallon the first week of March.
Perhaps the continued margin average decrease over the past three weeks is an indication that fuel marketers are now vying for volume and willing to sacrifice some of their margins. Only fuel pricing software like PriceAdvantage can allow the savvy fuel analyst to play the volume / margin game and make the most profit during these turbulent times.
