US EIA Predictions

  • US EIA Predictions

    US EIA predicts 2012 retail gasoline prices to match 2011 prices

    In the US Energy Information Administration Short-term Energy Outlook report for August, the agency predicts 2012 retail regular unleaded gasoline prices to match 2011 prices of $3.53 per gallon. In 2010 retail prices for regular unleaded gasoline were $2.78 for the year. The US EIA predicts 2013 retail gasoline prices for regular unleaded to dip down to $3.33 per gallon.

    These predicted gasoline prices are based on the assumption that Brent crude will average $103 per barrel for the second half of 2012, and $100 per barrel for all of 2013. These gasoline price forecasts also assume that world oil-consumption-weighted real gross domestic product (GDP), which increased by 3.0 percent in 2011, grows by 2.8 percent in 2012 and 2.9 percent in 2013.

    From a gasoline pricing strategy and a fuel price management perspective, if these predictions hold true, the overall size of the retail gasoline fuel market is likely to remain steady because drastic gasoline price increases to the $4 threshold are not within sight for the next 18 months.

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