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- 02 Aug
Harvard Predicts Lower Oil Price Trend
In the Harvard report “Oil: The Next Revolution, The unprecedented upsurge of oil production capacity and what it means for the world”, Leonardo Maugeri predicts a change in the balance of power and and a long-term lower oil prices for the remainder of the decade. From a fuel price management perspective, this is a fascinating picture of where we are today and where we are likely to be in the coming decades.
Mr. Maugeri outlines a range of different scenarios with varying economic possibilities ranging from a new world-wide economic recession, a sudden solution to major political tensions, a collapse of the China economy, and a sudden recovery of the world economy. Mr. Maugeri writes “I have no particular preference for any of these scenarios…although I think the probability of a significant fall in oil prices is higher than all other scenarios.”
The paper asserts that its most important messages are these:
- Oil is not in short supply
- The oil market is global and none of its pieces/countries can be insulated from the other
- The shale boom in the US is the most important revolution in the oil sector in decades
- Conventional oil production is growing throughout the world
- The oil market will continue to remain volatile through 2015
- The Western Hemisphere could return to pre-World War II status of self-sufficiency
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