US EIA revises projected summer fuel prices $.15 downward

  • US EIA revises projected summer fuel prices $.15 downward

    In the June 8, 2010 edition of the US Energy Information Administration’s monthly “Short-Term Energy Outlook”, the EIA revised their forecast for summer unleaded retail fuel price national averages down $.15 per gallon. The EIA now projects the national average fuel price for unleaded will be $2.79 per gallon for the summer 2010 driving season that lasts through September 30. The summer gasoline price forecast is down primarily as a result of the lower crude oil price forecast. The average price in the summer of 2009 was $2.44 per gallon.

    This downward projection is despite the estimates of reductions in production resulting from a 6-month deepwater drilling moratorium announced by Secretary Salazar in May. The reductions in crude oil production resulting from the moratorium are estimated to average about 26,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in the fourth quarter of 2010 and roughly 70,000 bbl/d in 2011.

    EIA projects crude oil prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year.

    EIA projects that OPEC, which did not change its production targets at its March meeting, will keep its crude oil production largely unchanged for the remainder of 2010. The countries that have the bulk of OPEC ‘s spare capacity – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates – have maintained their quota discipline at current levels for an extended period and are expected to continue doing so barring significant changes in the world oil market outlook.

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